Jonathan's blog

Monday, September 29, 2008

We need something.

I may not have liked the proposed bailout package but to vote it down and not have a back-up plan is like going to war and not having an exit strategy. Nobody wins. The down vote today cost the taxpayers more in market losses, though unrealized for the smart ones, than the damn "bailout" would cost. I don't think the general public understands 1) how expensive the plan truly will turn out to be (less than $750 bil.) and 2) the repercussions for doing nothing. It has been a long time since our country has had a financial system crisis like this. I don't believe these people who are calling on their Reps to vote against these "rescue" plans realize that helping the stupid firms (I emphasize stupid because they did screw up big) will help them. Most people can't pay cash for their homes, college tution, cars, small business ventures, etc. If we don't help the banks spending will dry up and the economy will shrink significantly more than it is already going to. I fully believe that if we just let the free market work itself out, we will see double digit unemployment. People think it hurts now and we are only at 6.1%! Passing this bill or something similar is necessary to stop the momentum of a bad situation getting worse. The whole system is so interconnected that now each failure inevitably leads to another. Putting the money into the system won't prevent all future losses but it will at least give us a chance to stabilize for the short-term (6 months) and possibly start growing again later next year. I just don't know how this fragile system will fair if everyone runs on all the banks.

Luckily, I believe that Congress will get together on Thursday and hopefully pass some smaller, potentially less expensive measures to help shore things up on a piecemeal basis. They can start with an idea I've heard about increasing FDIC insurance caps to at least $200k per person. This will help offset the huge problem of money flowing out of banks and into T-bills and money market funds. We need banks to make the system work and banks need deposits/capital to operate. Since the government now guarantees money market funds, any person or business over the FDIC limit who has cash in a poor performing bank will pull out their cash and put it in a money market fund. And justifiably so. So increasing the limit will certainly help to some degree. Probably most important of all, if banks don't have the money they need to make mortgage loans than prices of homes will continue to drop and our economy will absolutely not turn around until housing prices stabilize. It is a tall order but it is possible to get out of this mess without falling into recession of greater than a year but it will take smart and bold moves by Congress at this point to make it happen. The Fed and Treasury have done pretty much all they can without a new law being passed.

5 Comments:

Blogger Kimberly said...

I agree with you completely. The average person does not understand the seriousness of what will happen if there isn't a bailout in some form. Somehow, it's become the Big Bad Bailout that is rescuing poorly run companies and their overpaid executives.

Our government leaders are not doing a good job of explaining the potential consequences of letting the market work itself out. I also think they should emphasize that $700 billion dollars is NOT going to be paid directly from taxpayers' pockets. Based on what I've read, the proposed plan ensures that most if not all of the money will be recouped.

1/10/08 12:28 PM  
Blogger Jonathan said...

Well put Kimmie Sue. One problem though. Those stupid bastards are my leaders not yours. Don't you bow to some King now? Glad to see you are keeping up on the problems of your homeland though. Not that there aren't enough in your adopted homeland. I read that they have already gone into a technical recession over there. At least those silly Micks are leading the world at something! ;O)

I think we will have a bill passed by the end of the week. It's amazing how fast the brainless voters (and their Reps) come to their senses after a 10% market drop.

1/10/08 11:36 PM  
Blogger Kimberly said...

Check out this article. I think you'll get a kick out of it.

Hedge-Fund Guy Dips His Snout in Bailout Trough: Mark Gilbert
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=columnist_gilbert&sid=anRw4a17m.4c

And no, I don't bow to some king. Actually, I still haven't figured out how the Irish government works. And Irish people aren't that helpful in explaining it. All the news here revolves around what's happening in the U.S. and rugby.

2/10/08 3:10 PM  
Blogger Jonathan said...

I kind of fancy Plan C. The lottery can provide huge alpha.

4/10/08 11:32 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You should run for president.

30/10/08 2:25 PM  

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